Almost one year to the anniversary of the flash crash, on Cinco de Mayo, the bizarreness that this player had been sensing in the markets came to fruition in the form of a massive commodity crash.
Commodities got pummeled with oil down almost 10% to close under $100 a barrel.
Market Color thought oil was frothy at $110 a barrel and had room to sell off, but to sell off more than $10 in one session…that is quite the move.
Coincidentally, over an interesting dinner last night with some market players, this player drew attention to the timing of the Glencore IPO (initial public offering)…if Glencore is going public now, then commodities may have had their run…
As expectations of interest rate increases become more widespread, it seemed inevitable that the "commodity balloon" would deflate at some point, shaking out many of the speculative long positions.
Gold closed down $40 (3%) to end at $1,470 an ounce with Silver down 12% to close at $34 an ounce.
Almost all commodities from Cotton to Copper to Cocoa and Nickel were down significantly; this was a massive systemic correction.
Meanwhile treasury bonds continue to rally in a painful short-squeeze (for some) while the U.S. dollar is closing at 1.45 against the Euro.
Stocks closed lower with corporate credit spreads a few basis points wider as cash bonds under-performed relative to CDS (credit default swap) spreads.
The corporate bond market will be stress-tested next week with new issue volumes expected to be very high.
In new issues, JP Morgan hit the market with a $2 billion 10 year deal at +148; the issue traded relatively well in the secondary markets despite the stock sell-off.
Utility Scana Corp hit the market with a small $300 million 10 year bond that was more than three times oversubscribed (mostly real-money accounts).
Real-money players will demand bigger concessions from issuers and dealers next week considering the high expected volume of deals.
Watch tomorrow's payroll and unemployment numbers.