Germany has been undergoing a political restructuring that has economic concerns in its core. More crucially, this is the first time since the end of the Cold War that Germany has been changing its position at the center of the european balance of powers. It is as if Germany is rewriting its hidden agenda for the first time since 1989. This will deeply affect Turkey's process of seeking EU membership, EU's general pattern and future and Russia's place in this balance of powers all of which now converge at this crossroads of history. Germany a great economic power at the heart of Europe, is confronted with a choice and trying to grasp the consequences that the choice will bring. We have witnessed in the passing days the unconventional and stern reaction that Germany has shown in response to the current events in Ukraine,which are extremely vital for Turkey as well. This is first time after along while that Germany has challenged Russia so assertively. This is so far the most significant sign that Germany is gradually moving to the point where it will have to make a choice or reset. If Germany suddenly suprises the world in terms of its view about Turkey's EU membership process, this will be the second strongest indicator of this transformation.
Germany's opposition to Turkey's EU membership has never been broken. But If as a result of this historical transformation creates a Germany with different main strategic lines then things might change. In sum, so far, Germany's main political stand on this issue is this: If Turkey with its young and huge population and its promising economic dynamism becomes a member of the EU, then Turkey would side with the UK who has always supported its EU membership and in such a way might form a coalition that would enlarge the opposition front against Germany. Turkey's relations with the US in the Balkans and the Middle East would make the US's influence in the EU more present through Turkey and that could change the balance of powers in the EU and cause its destiny and center of gravity to shift to the coalition of UK-US-Turkey. This situation would be unacceptable for Germany which is indisputably centre and economic powerhouse of Europe that is feeding countries around it with its exports. From Berlin's perspective, Ankara is an important player that can not be ignored and represents gateway to new markets therefore, Turkey should definetely be kept under control but not inside the EU. A Turkey, as an equel member of the Union, could jeopardize Germany's role and ability to give direction to the future of the Union.
Germany is Turkey's biggest trading partner, not just in Europe but worldwide. Trade volume between the two countries is around 35-40 billion dollars. If we keep in mind that ten years ago their mutual trade was about 12 billion dollars then we can get a clear picture of the progress that has been made since then. Not long ago, Germany was the largest exporter in the world until was surpassed by China, but having an export-oriented dynamic economy is still Germany's most vital priority.
There are now, three million Turks living in Germany which represents a serious lobby for Turkey. As President Gul, put it a while ago at the ambassadors meeting, it can be an important "soft power". That but has not happened because of Germany's extremely radical attitude. If those three million Turks were living in the US within the population of 320 million, their voice would be much louder than in Germany with its population of 80 million. Germany has been trying to indirectly intervene Turkish domestic politics since the 1970s, exploding the Turks living in Germany who come from various ethnic and religious backgrounds. Konrad Adenauer Foundation is still involved in many undisclosed operations. The reason Germany has been supporting separatist ethnic-sect groups in Turkey for the last 30 years lies in Germany's imperial agenda and ambitions. This will certainly make Germany lose much more than it will gain in the long term.
Germany imports 93 % of its natural gas consumption and its biggest supplier is Russia. Russia is a mammoth market for Germany where 4600 German companies do business, and a big source of cheap labor. More importantly, it is a stepping stone to the Caucasus, the Caspian region, Central Asia and Iran. Russia is the largest trade partner of Germany with a volume of 40-45 billion euros. Therefore, it would be hard to imagine a "bigger Germany" unless it can establish a cogent control over Russia by using German capital and technology. In their bilateral relations, energy is Russia's most important card; however German capital and technology is a stronger card in the long run. This is probably Putin's gravest mistake. In the end, by supporting Russia with technology and capital Germany is only postponing Russia's demise. But in any case the Russian-German relations are crucial for world peace.
When they asked Lord Ismay the reason for the establisment of NATO, he replied "to America in, Germany under and the Soviet Union out" For the Atlantic World, Europe's stability and security against the Soviet Union was only possible with forming a military alliance such as NATO with a social-economic union such as the EU and the creation of West European prosperity against communism to defeat the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. The general dynamic structure of German economy, German mind and character, were supposed to make Germany the locomotive of the union and in fact that happened. Therefore, Germany would penetrate through places with its "deutsche mark" where it could not occupied with its panzers during the two bloody world wars, and this socio-economic structure would serve German interests just the way Germany wished it to. Germany could only be forced to keep the peace and kept away from its ambitions in an order that would bring prosperity to first Germany and then to the whole of Western Europe within the frame work of a mutual dependenceny. This is how the EU came to be. This was the nature of continuum since the 1950s, but nowadays both Germany and the rest of Europe are passing through a critical threshold of history.
The history of the EU has been written because Germany did not 'stop' it in the last five-six decades. If Germany still wants, the EU will continue to be a major player despite everything. The EU is turning into a diplomatic structure that is getting old, losing its economic dynamism, and it will likely continue this way. Merkel should be asking herself "Which of these scenarios promises Germany a brighter future: a EU that is getting old and losing its economic dynamism excluding Turkey, or a EU including Turkey which is young, expected to become the second largest economy of Europe after Germany by 2050, and part of not only Europe, but also Asia, the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea?"
The EU's next century's keystones and Germany's global mission will be built by Germany's relations with Turkey and Russia, and all their vision for the future of Europe. Not by the imperial ambitions which cost 70-80 million lives in the 20th century.
